Nichols and Dimes

Innovative Basketball Research

Euroleague Now Included in the Box Score Prediction System

Recently I explored the correlation between Euroleague and NBA stats.  My next step has been to incorporate Euroleague stats into my Box Score Prediction System.

I used the same process with Euroleague as I did with the NCAA.  I developed a formula that projects each NBA stat using Euroleague data and other variables such as height, weight, and experience.  These formulas were developed using multiple linear regressions.  The adjusted R^2 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination) values for the different NBA stats are as follows:

FGA: 0.2971

FG%: 0.3004

3PA: 0.6834

3P%: 0.7729

FTA: 0.4111

FT%: 0.6887

REB: 0.8609

AST: 0.7202

STL: 0.5606

BLK: 0.7964

TO: 0.4538

PF: 0.5432

In the next few weeks, I will include projections of European prospects to go along with my projections of college players.  I have slightly less confidence about the Euro projections because the data is more unreliable, but the projections will still be useful.

All Euroleague stats were obtained from www.keyhoops.com.  NBA stats were obtained from www.basketball-reference.com.

April 9, 2009 Posted by | Box Score Prediction System | Leave a comment